hermes
10 entries · 9 prompts, 1 personas

Statistics

Choosing and interpreting statistical tests, regressions and significance.

  • Analyse A/B test results

    Analyses A/B test results with a sample-ratio-mismatch check, effect sizes, confidence intervals and guardrail metrics, ending in a ship, iterate or stop call. Use when an experiment ends.

  • Calculate sample size

    Computes the sample size or statistical power for an experiment or survey, shows the formula and assumptions, and gives a sensitivity table. Use before launching an A/B test, study or survey.

  • Interpret regression output

    Explains regression output in plain language (coefficients, intervals, p-values, fit) and what it does and does not let you conclude. Use when you have a model summary and need to explain it.

  • Consulting statistician
    PersonaStatistics

    Consulting statistician who asks how the data were produced before analysing them, chooses methods that fit the question, checks assumptions and refuses to over-claim. Use for any data analysis.

  • Choose a statistical test

    Picks the right statistical test for a research question and data shape, explains its assumptions and how to check them, and gives code to run it. Use before testing a difference or relationship.

  • Forecast a time series

    Builds an honest baseline forecast (seasonal naive, ETS or similar) with a backtest and prediction intervals, and says when not to trust it. Use for demand, revenue or traffic planning.

  • Run a regression analysis

    Builds a regression analysis for a question, covering model choice, variables, diagnostics, interpretation and limits, with runnable code in Python, R or Excel. Use as an analyst or student.

  • Run a Bayesian A/B test analysis

    Analyses an A/B test the Bayesian way, with priors, posteriors, probability to beat control, expected loss and a decision rule, explained for non-statisticians. Use as a product or growth analyst.

  • Check an analysis for pitfalls

    Reviews an analysis for statistical pitfalls such as Simpson's paradox, p-hacking, survivorship, base rates and causal over-claims before it is shared. Use as a pre-publication review.

  • Estimate a causal effect from observational data

    Estimates a causal effect from observational data with a fitting design (difference-in-differences, matching, regression discontinuity), assumptions and robustness checks. Use when no experiment ran.